As of this writing, I have not been changed for good. However, even without an early look at the Wicked finale, I’m awfully confident Jon M. Chu’s musical epic will find a home in this year’s Oscar race multiple times over — perhaps surpassing the first film’s 10 nominations earlier this year.

Still, while the ultimate fate of the movie remains in some doubt — will voters be as smitten with the Wicked phenomenon so soon after the first phenomenon? — I’m feeling more bullish by the day in Ariana Grande going all the way to the Dolby Theatre stage next year, and I’m not alone.

Currently, eight Prestige Junkie pundits have Grande winning best supporting actress for Wicked: For Good — a fact that will undoubtedly have Grande’s online stan army rejoicing. That’s in addition to 96 percent of the pundits who are predicting the category slotting Grande in for a nomination, the most of any actress this year.

I wouldn’t dare speak for the seven other pundits (wisely) predicting Grande’s future victory, but my rationale begins with this year. Grande arguably almost won at the 2025 Oscars for Wicked, ultimately losing to Emilia Pérez star Zoe Saldaña. But this year, there is no Saldaña in the race, and the track record of the Academy rewarding the showy musical performer in the supporting actress category is too notable to ignore: Catherine Zeta-Jones (Chicago), Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls), Anne Hathaway (Les Misérables), Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) and, yes, Saldaña. Grande would slot nicely onto that list of 21st-century winners.

Even more important: As fans of the Wicked musical know, Grande’s Glinda is arguably the lead in the show’s second act. That gives Grande an edge over actual supporting performers like Taylor and Madigan, as the Academy continually honors lead performers in the supporting category (see Saldaña and A Real Pain co-lead and best supporting actor winner Kieran Culkin as just the latest examples of this trend). Put that all together, and Grande almost seems undeniable — especially since, as we know, she’s got the popular vote locked up.

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