While there remains a lot of pundit discord in the lead acting categories, the best supporting actor field feels relatively stable. Of the 22 Prestige Junkie pundits picking the category — including newcomers like Next Best Picture’s Matt Neglia, The New Yorker’s Michael Schulman and Katey’s former Little Gold Men ride-or-die Richard Lawson — 21 have One Battle After Another star and two-time Oscar winner Sean Penn predicted among their nominees, with 19 pundits also predicting Sentimental Value star Stellan Skarsgård. (In the race to win, nine pundits have Skarsgård in first vs. seven for Penn.) Paul Mescal, officially added to the category earlier this month, is present on 18 ballots for his performance in Hamnet, while Jay Kelly star Adam Sandler (15 pundits) and One Battle scene stealer Benicio del Toro (13 pundits) are each on more than half of the predictions lists. The likelihood of those five names being announced as the category’s nominees on Jan. 22 feels awfully strong.

But ever the contrarian — and apologies to other underdog contenders like Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere co-star Jeremy Strong (three pundits), Sinners veteran Delroy Lindo (three pundits) and Joe Reid’s out-of-the-box-but-awesome suggestion that Josh O’Connor can get in here for Wake Up Dead Man (Josh is basically a lead but the expectation is that Netflix will campaign him as a supporting actor; in either category, he’d be an absolutely worthy nominee) — allow me to put some shine on Jacob Elordi. I’m currently one of four pundits expecting the Saltburn and Euphoria star to secure his first-ever Oscar nomination (shout out to my fellow Elordi stans, Tyler Coates, Katie Walsh and Esther Zuckerman). Here’s why: When speaking to people about Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein (out now in limited release before hitting Netflix next month), Elordi has been mentioned as a constant standout. He’s the best part of the movie and imbues his character, Frankenstein’s monster a.k.a the Creature, with genuine pathos and empathy. That kind of passion doesn’t necessarily exist with some of the other contenders in the category (it pains me to say this, but I’m looking in Sandler’s direction).

More grist for this mill: Frankenstein is still a significant contender despite its scuffles with the late-night festival crowd at Telluride, as Joe and I discussed this week — and it’s easy to imagine it landing a best picture nomination ahead of its Netflix cohorts Jay Kelly and A House of Dynamite. (Del Toro got into best picture with the cold and removed Nightmare Alley, so the logic goes that a mainstream picture like Frankenstein should have an easier time of it.)

I get it: Elordi is still very young (28) and doesn’t necessarily have the bona fides or narrative of some of his competition. Still, he’s an actor on the rise who has worked with several recent Oscar nominees and past winners, including Margot Robbie, Barry Keoghan and Sofia Coppola. Plus, as I mentioned last week with Katey and Joyce Eng, Elordi can also run a bit of Sebastian Stan’s campaign for The Apprentice: a matinee idol undergoing a significant transformation to play a monster (sorry). What I’m saying is, Elordi is an underdog, no doubt, but one I consider extremely… alive.

Subscribe to Prestige Junkie to get Pundit updates straight to your inbox and Prestige Junkie After Party for even more of the ins and outs of awards season.

I’m old enough to remember last week, when I cavalierly suggested to Katey that this year’s best actress race had nothing on the best actor category. But with confirmation that One Battle After Another newcomer Chase Infiniti and Song Sung Blue veteran Kate Hudson have joined a field that already includes past Oscar winners Emma Stone (Bugonia), Jennifer Lawrence (Die My Love) and Julia Roberts (After the Hunt), former Oscar nominees Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good), Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee), Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) and June Squibb (Eleanor the Great), as well as favorites hoping for a breakthrough like Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) and Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value).

Still, if the nominations phase of the season holds much drama ahead, there already seems to be a pretty strong consensus on the eventual winner. Of the 18 Prestige Junkie pundits — including newcomers to our prestigious list, AwardsWatch’s Sophia Cimenello and Ryan McQuade — 17 expect Buckley to emerge victorious for Hamnet. (Shout out to Sonny Bunch for the contrarian view: He currently has Byrne in first place with Buckley in second.) Buckley has gotten the best reviews of her already impressive career for Chloé Zhao’s heartbreaking drama about how William Shakespeare (Paul Mescal) and his wife, Agnes (Buckley), grieve the death of their son, Hamnet (Jacobi Jupe). Hamnet has left festival audiences in tears (guilty!) since it premiered at Telluride in August. While it’s easy to imagine someone like Infiniti or Reinsve pushing Buckley in Phase 2 (especially if One Battle After Another or Sentimental Value emerge as bigger best picture threats than Hamnet), her performance already feels undeniable and, more importantly, hits viewers in the feels. That matters almost as much as anything else. Just think back to earlier this year, as Anora was running toward its unlikely Oscar domination, including a best actress win for star Mikey Madison, when Neon urged voters to “follow your heart” in picking the Sean Baker film. If and when Focus Features starts running the same playbook for Hamnet and Buckley early next year, remember where you heard it first.

Subscribe to Prestige Junkie to get Pundit updates straight to your inbox and Prestige Junkie After Party for even more of the ins and outs of awards season.