If the best actor race is about multiple A-list men with long histories of success vying for awards recognition, consider the best actress contest its opposite: one major frontrunner in Julianne Moore followed by a ton of newcomers and breakouts, a handful of respected veterans and, by my count, just two no-argument, above-the-title movie stars (Zendaya and Emily Blunt). That’s fun! Assuming Moore is nominated for her barn-burner performance in The Debut, it seems very likely that the other four actresses joining her in the category will all be first-time nominees — including several names that were all but unknown a year ago.
Historically, actresses are far more likely than actors to win Oscars as newcomers, from Judy Holliday in 1950’s Born Yesterday to Mikey Madison for Anora just two years ago. But Oscar season has many different kinds of discoveries, and this year’s hopefuls can follow many different narratives on their way to trying to beat Julianne Moore. (Not that it’ll be easy, as I’ll discuss on tomorrow’s podcast with Christopher Rosen and Rotten Tomatoes awards editor Jacqueline Coley.)
As you can see on the Best Actress predictions page, there’s little consensus beyond Moore, which means those remaining four slots could be anyone’s game. For the sake of talking about breakthroughs of one kind or another, I’ll set aside the previous nominees who are in the mix — Helen Mirren for A Talent for Murder, Blunt for Disclosure Day, Sandra Hüller for Rose and/or Fatherland, Sophie Okonedo for Clarissa, Renate Reinsve for Fjord — and focus on the first-timers. If they’re getting their first Oscar nominations this year, how will they go about it?