2026-27 Oscar Nomination Predictions

As of this writing, I have not been changed for good. However, even without an early look at the Wicked finale, I’m awfully confident Jon M. Chu’s musical epic will find a home in this year’s Oscar race multiple times over — perhaps surpassing the first film’s 10 nominations earlier this year.

Still, while the ultimate fate of the movie remains in some doubt — will voters be as smitten with the Wicked phenomenon so soon after the first phenomenon? — I’m feeling more bullish by the day in Ariana Grande going all the way to the Dolby Theatre stage next year, and I’m not alone.

Currently, eight Prestige Junkie pundits have Grande winning best supporting actress for Wicked: For Good — a fact that will undoubtedly have Grande’s online stan army rejoicing. That’s in addition to 96 percent of the pundits who are predicting the category slotting Grande in for a nomination, the most of any actress this year.

I wouldn’t dare speak for the seven other pundits (wisely) predicting Grande’s future victory, but my rationale begins with this year. Grande arguably almost won at the 2025 Oscars for Wicked, ultimately losing to Emilia Pérez star Zoe Saldaña. But this year, there is no Saldaña in the race, and the track record of the Academy rewarding the showy musical performer in the supporting actress category is too notable to ignore: Catherine Zeta-Jones (Chicago), Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls), Anne Hathaway (Les Misérables), Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) and, yes, Saldaña. Grande would slot nicely onto that list of 21st-century winners.

Even more important: As fans of the Wicked musical know, Grande’s Glinda is arguably the lead in the show’s second act. That gives Grande an edge over actual supporting performers like Taylor and Madigan, as the Academy continually honors lead performers in the supporting category (see Saldaña and A Real Pain co-lead and best supporting actor winner Kieran Culkin as just the latest examples of this trend). Put that all together, and Grande almost seems undeniable — especially since, as we know, she’s got the popular vote locked up.

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While there remains a lot of pundit discord in the lead acting categories, the best supporting actor field feels relatively stable. Of the 22 Prestige Junkie pundits picking the category — including newcomers like Next Best Picture’s Matt Neglia, The New Yorker’s Michael Schulman and Katey’s former Little Gold Men ride-or-die Richard Lawson — 21 have One Battle After Another star and two-time Oscar winner Sean Penn predicted among their nominees, with 19 pundits also predicting Sentimental Value star Stellan Skarsgård. (In the race to win, nine pundits have Skarsgård in first vs. seven for Penn.) Paul Mescal, officially added to the category earlier this month, is present on 18 ballots for his performance in Hamnet, while Jay Kelly star Adam Sandler (15 pundits) and One Battle scene stealer Benicio del Toro (13 pundits) are each on more than half of the predictions lists. The likelihood of those five names being announced as the category’s nominees on Jan. 22 feels awfully strong.

But ever the contrarian — and apologies to other underdog contenders like Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere co-star Jeremy Strong (three pundits), Sinners veteran Delroy Lindo (three pundits) and Joe Reid’s out-of-the-box-but-awesome suggestion that Josh O’Connor can get in here for Wake Up Dead Man (Josh is basically a lead but the expectation is that Netflix will campaign him as a supporting actor; in either category, he’d be an absolutely worthy nominee) — allow me to put some shine on Jacob Elordi. I’m currently one of four pundits expecting the Saltburn and Euphoria star to secure his first-ever Oscar nomination (shout out to my fellow Elordi stans, Tyler Coates, Katie Walsh and Esther Zuckerman). Here’s why: When speaking to people about Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein (out now in limited release before hitting Netflix next month), Elordi has been mentioned as a constant standout. He’s the best part of the movie and imbues his character, Frankenstein’s monster a.k.a the Creature, with genuine pathos and empathy. That kind of passion doesn’t necessarily exist with some of the other contenders in the category (it pains me to say this, but I’m looking in Sandler’s direction).

More grist for this mill: Frankenstein is still a significant contender despite its scuffles with the late-night festival crowd at Telluride, as Joe and I discussed this week — and it’s easy to imagine it landing a best picture nomination ahead of its Netflix cohorts Jay Kelly and A House of Dynamite. (Del Toro got into best picture with the cold and removed Nightmare Alley, so the logic goes that a mainstream picture like Frankenstein should have an easier time of it.)

I get it: Elordi is still very young (28) and doesn’t necessarily have the bona fides or narrative of some of his competition. Still, he’s an actor on the rise who has worked with several recent Oscar nominees and past winners, including Margot Robbie, Barry Keoghan and Sofia Coppola. Plus, as I mentioned last week with Katey and Joyce Eng, Elordi can also run a bit of Sebastian Stan’s campaign for The Apprentice: a matinee idol undergoing a significant transformation to play a monster (sorry). What I’m saying is, Elordi is an underdog, no doubt, but one I consider extremely… alive.

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