I’m old enough to remember last week, when I cavalierly suggested to Katey that this year’s best actress race had nothing on the best actor category. But with confirmation that One Battle After Another newcomer Chase Infiniti and Song Sung Blue veteran Kate Hudson have joined a field that already includes past Oscar winners Emma Stone (Bugonia), Jennifer Lawrence (Die My Love) and Julia Roberts (After the Hunt), former Oscar nominees Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good), Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee), Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) and June Squibb (Eleanor the Great), as well as favorites hoping for a breakthrough like Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) and Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value).
Still, if the nominations phase of the season holds much drama ahead, there already seems to be a pretty strong consensus on the eventual winner. Of the 18 Prestige Junkie pundits — including newcomers to our prestigious list, AwardsWatch’s Sophia Cimenello and Ryan McQuade — 17 expect Buckley to emerge victorious for Hamnet. (Shout out to Sonny Bunch for the contrarian view: He currently has Byrne in first place with Buckley in second.) Buckley has gotten the best reviews of her already impressive career for Chloé Zhao’s heartbreaking drama about how William Shakespeare (Paul Mescal) and his wife, Agnes (Buckley), grieve the death of their son, Hamnet (Jacobi Jupe). Hamnet has left festival audiences in tears (guilty!) since it premiered at Telluride in August. While it’s easy to imagine someone like Infiniti or Reinsve pushing Buckley in Phase 2 (especially if One Battle After Another or Sentimental Value emerge as bigger best picture threats than Hamnet), her performance already feels undeniable and, more importantly, hits viewers in the feels. That matters almost as much as anything else. Just think back to earlier this year, as Anora was running toward its unlikely Oscar domination, including a best actress win for star Mikey Madison, when Neon urged voters to “follow your heart” in picking the Sean Baker film. If and when Focus Features starts running the same playbook for Hamnet and Buckley early next year, remember where you heard it first.
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