While there remains a lot of pundit discord in the lead acting categories, the best supporting actor field feels relatively stable. Of the 22 Prestige Junkie pundits picking the category — including newcomers like Next Best Picture’s Matt Neglia, The New Yorker’s Michael Schulman and Katey’s former Little Gold Men ride-or-die Richard Lawson — 21 have One Battle After Another star and two-time Oscar winner Sean Penn predicted among their nominees, with 19 pundits also predicting Sentimental Value star Stellan Skarsgård. (In the race to win, nine pundits have Skarsgård in first vs. seven for Penn.) Paul Mescal, officially added to the category earlier this month, is present on 18 ballots for his performance in Hamnet, while Jay Kelly star Adam Sandler (15 pundits) and One Battle scene stealer Benicio del Toro (13 pundits) are each on more than half of the predictions lists. The likelihood of those five names being announced as the category’s nominees on Jan. 22 feels awfully strong.
But ever the contrarian — and apologies to other underdog contenders like Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere co-star Jeremy Strong (three pundits), Sinners veteran Delroy Lindo (three pundits) and Joe Reid’s out-of-the-box-but-awesome suggestion that Josh O’Connor can get in here for Wake Up Dead Man (Josh is basically a lead but the expectation is that Netflix will campaign him as a supporting actor; in either category, he’d be an absolutely worthy nominee) — allow me to put some shine on Jacob Elordi. I’m currently one of four pundits expecting the Saltburn and Euphoria star to secure his first-ever Oscar nomination (shout out to my fellow Elordi stans, Tyler Coates, Katie Walsh and Esther Zuckerman). Here’s why: When speaking to people about Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein (out now in limited release before hitting Netflix next month), Elordi has been mentioned as a constant standout. He’s the best part of the movie and imbues his character, Frankenstein’s monster a.k.a the Creature, with genuine pathos and empathy. That kind of passion doesn’t necessarily exist with some of the other contenders in the category (it pains me to say this, but I’m looking in Sandler’s direction).
More grist for this mill: Frankenstein is still a significant contender despite its scuffles with the late-night festival crowd at Telluride, as Joe and I discussed this week — and it’s easy to imagine it landing a best picture nomination ahead of its Netflix cohorts Jay Kelly and A House of Dynamite. (Del Toro got into best picture with the cold and removed Nightmare Alley, so the logic goes that a mainstream picture like Frankenstein should have an easier time of it.)
I get it: Elordi is still very young (28) and doesn’t necessarily have the bona fides or narrative of some of his competition. Still, he’s an actor on the rise who has worked with several recent Oscar nominees and past winners, including Margot Robbie, Barry Keoghan and Sofia Coppola. Plus, as I mentioned last week with Katey and Joyce Eng, Elordi can also run a bit of Sebastian Stan’s campaign for The Apprentice: a matinee idol undergoing a significant transformation to play a monster (sorry). What I’m saying is, Elordi is an underdog, no doubt, but one I consider extremely… alive.
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